Strategic Inaction? The Curious Case of Intelligence Failures

A Visual Representation of LIHOP (AI Generated)

Following the 9/11 attacks, the United States declared a war on terror and invaded Iraq and Afghanistan to dismantle Al-Qaeda and their once anti-Soviet ally, the Taliban. The war went on for almost two decades and led to the death of over 5 million people, mostly those in the Middle East. With this, many conspiracy theories attributed the 9/11 attacks to the United States government, including the theories of the ‘Dancing Israelis’. But are they just conspiracy theories? If so, why would that government do that against its own people?

LIHOP (“Let it happen on purpose”), one of the prominent conspiracy theories, suggests that key individuals within the US government had advance knowledge about the attack and deliberately ignored the intel so that they could use that as an excuse to invade the Middle East.

Governments around the world allegedly resort to LIHOP, or ‘strategic inaction,’ by scapegoating their people for political gains. In the case of America, however, investigations by government agencies and NGOs have rejected these theories. But many questions remain, such as why Iraq was invaded even though it was not involved in the attacks. Why did they lie about the weapons of mass destruction? And how did many American businessmen and politicians become super-rich following the invasion? 

Let us examine how some countries and governments may have overlooked intelligence reports and their subsequent political gains.

On October 7th, 2023, Hamas, a Palestinian extremist militant organisation, launched a massive surprise attack against Israel, where over 1200 Israelis were killed and many others were abducted. In retaliation, Israel launched a deadly attack in Gaza, initiating what many call the ‘genocide’. Since then, Israeli intelligence services have been under scrutiny for their failure to prevent such a deadly attack. 

The New York Times reported that Israel had obtained detailed battle plans of Hamas a year before the attack. The document titled “Jericho Wall” had details of the attack that resembled the attack carried out on Oct. 7th. This document was circulated amongst Israeli military and intelligence officials, but they dismissed it as unrealistic, believing that Hamas is impotent to carry out such a complex operation.

Weeks ahead of the attack, the US intelligence community warned the Biden administration about a possible escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict in the coming weeks. On September 28th, 2023, multiple intelligence streams warned that Hamas is preparing for rocket attacks across the border. On October 5th, the CIA warned of an increased possibility of violence by Hamas. On October 6th, right before the day of the attack, US officials got reports from Israel that such an attack was imminent. But all these reports were unclear about the scale and brutality of the attack. 

On 9th October, Michael McCaul, the chair of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, told the reporters that Egypt had warned Israel three days prior that such an attack could happen. An Egyptian intelligence official even confirmed that Israel had been warned. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described these reports as “absolutely fake” and said that they had not been warned. 

Former MI6 chief, Sir Alex Younger, compared this intelligence failure to that of 9/11, where authorities believed that such large-scale attacks were not possible, even though the data hinted at some threats. He also highlighted how Israel deliberately shifted 70% of their armed forces from the heavily fortified borders of Gaza to the West Bank. Leaked videos from 2022 show Hamas training in the same assault mode they deployed for the attack, revealing that these were happening in plain sight, less than a mile away from the borders. Why did this go unnoticed by the Middle East’s most sophisticated military and espionage organisations? 

A leaked cable from 2007 released by WikiLeaks sheds light on a meeting between the Israeli head of Military Intelligence, Major General Amos Yaldin, and the US Ambassador Richard Jonas, where Yaldin is heard saying, “Israel would be ‘happy’ if Hamas took over Gaza because the IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.” On the same day of the meeting, Hamas began its attack on Fatah, a more liberal Palestinian organisation, and later took control of Gaza.

Netanyahu has a history of allegedly cooperating with Hamas, where he once defended allowing the transfer of millions of dollars by Qatar to them and released thousands of Gazans in exchange for one or two Israeli captives. Why? An age-old classic political recipe of divide and rule to weaken the secular and liberal counterpart of Hamas, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), preventing every effort to establish a Palestinian state. The PLO, under the leadership of Yasser Arafat, agreed to peace for the first time and signed the Oslo Accords, which were subsequently sabotaged by Netanyahu, who led a massive protest against them. With the subsequent assassination of the incumbent Israeli PM, Yitzhak Rabin, by a far-right Israeli, all hope of peace died. Since then, Israel has been allegedly relying on Hamas, as is reflected by its Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who stated that “Hamas is an asset for Israel”. 

Before Oct. 7th, a massive protest had been brewing in the streets of Israel for months against Netanyahu for a judicial reform that restricts the Supreme Court’s authority to overturn government decisions it deems unreasonable, thereby giving excessive powers to the executive, especially during a time when Netanyahu is undergoing corruption trials. Then the attack happened, and what followed was war, a necessity for Netanyahu.

As George Orwell mentions in his famous novel 1984, Big Brother utilises absolute power to control the lives of the people. Dissent is never allowed to grow internally; instead, it is redirected to an external enemy. They're kept distracted by constant war and patriotism, so that they won't question the government.

A similar pattern unfolded in India in 2018, when the Modi government had only a few months to complete its first term. While the general elections are only months away, the Congress Party ended the BJP’s winning streak in the Hindi heartland of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh by winning the Assembly elections in all three states. The agrarian distress and farmers' strike led to the BJP losing significant rural constituencies in these states, and it was widely believed that their fate was sealed in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. 

Two months later, on February 14th, the Pulwama attack happened, killing 40 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the deadliest attack on Indian security personnel in Kashmir since 1989. The Pakistan-based terrorist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), claimed responsibility for the attack, and India blamed Pakistan for the attack, although the latter denied any involvement. It led to a severe blow to the India-Pak relationship, subsequently resulting in the military standoffs between the two nations. 

Now, there’s an external enemy. What followed were nationwide bandhs and candle marches, violence against Kashmiri students across India, associations within the Indian film and television industries banning Pakistani actors and artists, and a Pakistani prisoner in Jaipur Central Jail was beaten to death, among others. Now the people have their blood boiling and a thirst for retribution. The government quenched their thirst in the form of the Balakot air strike. 

On 26th February, the Indian Air Force, with its twelve Mirage 2000s, crossed the Line of Control (LoC) and dropped bombs into Pakistan’s Balakot, claiming to have destroyed the training camps of Jaish-e-Mohammed, killing a large number of terrorists. 

With the justice being served, there was a patriotic fervour and a strong sense of unity across regions, religions, and political ideologies. Even celebrities such as Sehwag, Ajay Devgan, Rajinikanth, and Kamal Haasan have praised the Air Force’s action, using the hashtag #JaiHind. 

While the strategic impact of the strike remains debated, its impact on the political landscape was profound. The strike’s resonance amongst the common people seeking retribution helped enhance Narendra Modi’s image, especially after the BJP’s recent electoral setbacks. This also silenced the critiques from the opposition, who risked being labelled anti-national or unpatriotic. That year, the BJP-led NDA came to power for the second term, winning a clear majority. 

Many, including the former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief, AS Dulat, and former Tripura Chief Minister, Manik Sarkar, criticised the BJP for leveraging the Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrike for electoral gains. According to Dulat, the airstrike was inevitable for the government, given the upcoming elections. 

Before the attack at Pulwama, the Indian government received 11 intelligence reports, including those from the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and the Kashmir Police. Two days before the attack, JeM even uploaded a video of a suicide attack in Afghanistan and hinted at a similar attack in India. The Home Ministry was accused of ignoring the intelligence report and not providing an aircraft for the CRPF convoy, instead letting them pass through the road with unguarded link roads.

Former Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Satyapal Malik, stated that Prime Minister Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval instructed him to remain silent about the security lapses that led to the attack. He particularly highlighted how a vehicle carrying explosives was moving around the region for days without being detected. This revelation sparked a major controversy, with opposition leaders questioning the government and demanding accountability. The government, however, denied them all. 

There might not be evidence to prove all these, but asking the right questions will point all our fingers in a common direction. Whatever tragedy that has happened, be it 9/11, Oct. 7th, or Pulwama, none of them can be justified. But others need to be held accountable for exploiting these tragedies for their personal and political gain.

References

BBC News. (2023, October 12). Egypt warned Israel days before Hamas struck, US committee chairman says. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047

Bo Lillid, K., Cohen, Z., Marquardt, A., & Bertrand, N. (2023, October 13). US intelligence warned of the potential for violence days before the Hamas attack. CNN. Retrieved May 10, 2025, from https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/13/politics/us-intelligence-warnings-potential-gaza-clash-days-before-attack

Burke, J. (2024, October 8). ‘They told us a big attack wouldn’t happen’: the intelligence failures before 7 October. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/07/intelligence-failures-before-7-october-attack-hamas-israel-gaza

By  JPOST.COM STAFF. (2010, December 20). Yadlin: Israel would be ‘happy’ if Hamas takes over Gaza. The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com. https://www.jpost.com/israel/yadlin-israel-would-be-happy-if-hamas-takes-over-gaza

Cable: 07TELAVIV1733_a. (n.d.). https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07TELAVIV1733_a.html

Caravan. (2019, March 1). Modi is milking the present situation to the extreme: Former RAW chief AS Dulat on the Balakot strikes. The Caravan. https://caravanmagazine.in/conflict/as-dulat-on-india-pakistan-tensions

Chowdhury, K. (2023). Revelations on Pulwama Attack Return to Haunt Indian PM Modi: A former governor of Jammu and Kashmir has said that the Modi government refused to provide aircraft to lift paramilitary personnel traversing a risky route. The Diplomat. Retrieved May 11, 2025, from https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/revelations-on-pulwama-attack-return-to-haunt-indian-pm-modi/

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Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a nationalist theocrat: “In the context of delegitimization, Hamas is an asset & the Palestinian Authority is a liability- as long as I am finance minister, not a shekel will go to Gaza, period.” Like it's his money. (2023, December 31). X. Retrieved May 10, 2025, from https://x.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1741386814097674292

Jazeera, A. (2023, July 30). Israeli protesters keep pressure on Netanyahu over judicial overhaul. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/29/israeli-protesters-keep-pressure-on-netanyahu-over-judicial-overhaul

Murphy, P., John, T., Swails, B., & Liebermann, O. (2023, October 12). Hamas militants trained for its deadly attack in plain sight and less than a mile from Israel’s heavily fortified border. CNN. Retrieved May 10, 2025, from https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/12/middleeast/hamas-training-site-gaza-israel-intl/index.html

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Schneider, T. (2023, October 8). For years, Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it’s blown up in our faces: The premier’s policy of treating the terror group as a partner, at the expense of Abbas and Palestinian statehood, has resulted in wounds that will take Israel years to heal from. The Times of Israel. Retrieved May 11, 2025, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/

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Suraiya, J. (2019, February 27). The Balakot air strike has helped PM Modi get his poll mojo back after recent electoral losses. Times of India Blog. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/jugglebandhi/the-balakot-air-strike-has-helped-pm-modi-get-his-poll-mojo-back-after-recent-electoral-losses/